08
DEZ
2023
The background of the new debate on the procurement of nuclear weapons are, it is said, considerations on how US policy towards Europe could change should Donald Trump be re-elected US president in November next year. Reference is made to reports according to which Trump plans to distance himself from NATO or to put it "on stand-by." 1] From Trump's political environment, plans are known to let NATO "sleep", withdraw the US army from Europe and, at best, resurrect the alliance in a "big war". For the central US interest in winning the power struggle against China - if necessary also militarily - the transatlantic alliance is not really relevant, it is added. Trump will probably reinforce this in the departure from NATO, with which he had already flirted during his first term of office. If there is a military withdrawal of the USA from Europe and possibly even from NATO, then the states of Europe are not only forced to significantly increase their conventional armaments. They would also have to decide on a new nuclear armament, because the US nuclear shield will then hardly take hold.
A report in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, which outlines all these considerations, indicates that a comparable situation already arose after Trump's election victory in November 2016. 2] In this context, it is said, an advance of the gray eminence of the then Polish government, Jarosław Kaczyński, from February 2017 must be seen. Kaczyński declared at the time that he would welcome the establishment of a "nuclear superpower Europe". 3] The nuclear armament of the EU or the Federal Republic had already been discussed in Germany (german-foreign-policy.com reported [4]). The debate soon subsided again; as it is now said, NATO officials in particular tried to strangle them in order to offer Trump no reason to withdraw US troops from Europe [5] or even just to withdraw the US nuclear bombs, which are stationed in several European states, including the Federal Republic, within the framework of the so-called nuclear participation. However, the debate is now flaming up again with a view to the possibility that Trump will win the next US election again. As then, it is again being fueled by the media, especially in Germany.
Already on the 14th In November, a columnist of the Berliner Morgenpost, Hajo Schumacher, commented in this sense in a popular television talk show. Schumacher explained that in the discussion about the conflict with Russia, "the most sensitive topic has not yet been addressed": "We will have to ask ourselves: Do we need our own nuclear missiles in Germany?"[ 6] At the end of November, the political scientist and influential political publicist Herfried Münkler expressed a similar opinion. Münkler demanded in a press interview: "Europe must build nuclear capabilities." 7] Although Great Britain owns "nuclear submarines, France the bomb"; it is by no means guaranteed that one of the two countries or even both would use them to "protect Lithuania or Poland", for example. Münkler explicitly demanded: "We need a common suitcase with a red button that travels between large EU countries."
Currently, the former German Foreign Minister Joseph Fischer (Alliance 90/The Greens) has added. Fischer explained in an interview last weekend: "We must restore our deterrent ability." This is unavoidable, although he "does not like it at all", Fischer explained and used the conflict with Russia as justification: "As long as we have a neighbor Russia who follows Putin's imperial ideology, we cannot do without deter this Russia." 8] In addition to a comprehensive conventional armament, which, however, is "not possible with a debt brake and balanced budgets", nuclear armament is also necessary. Among other things, Fischer was asked whether the Federal Republic should arm itself nuclear at the national level. "This is indeed the most difficult question," Fischer explained: "Should the Federal Republic possess nuclear weapons? No. Europe? Yes." "The EU," said the Green politician, "needs its own nuclear deterrence."
The new nuclear weapons debate leads to new conflicts between Berlin and Paris. The background is that France is the only EU state to have nuclear weapons. President Emmanuel Macron urges that the planned European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) be expanded to include a nuclear deterrent component. Since this would be put according to the state of affairs by France and Paris would gain an outstanding influence, the federal government rejects the plans. 9] Meanwhile, French politicians emphasize that they are in principle also ready to be the first to use nuclear weapons. "France does not say that it is only considering a second blow," explains Thomas Gassilloud, chairman of the Defense Committee of the National Assembly. Gassilloud was recently quoted as saying that Paris reserves the right to "also react to conventional attacks with a first strike." 10]
[1], [2] Thomas Gutschker, Johannes Leithäuser, Michaela Wiegel, Matthias Wyssuwa: What does Europe do if Trump wins? Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung 03.12.2023.
[3] Konrad Schuller: "It is true that Mrs. Merkel would be the best for us." Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 07.02.2017.
[4] S. The shock as an opportunity and grip after the bomb.
[5] Thomas Gutschker, Johannes Leithäuser, Michaela Wiegel, Matthias Wyssuwa: What does Europe do if Trump wins? Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung 03.12.2023.
[6] Marlen Schubert: Putin: Now there is even talk about this taboo in Germany. derwesten.de 21.11.2023.
[7] Political scientist Herfried Münkler advises Europe on nuclear armament. spiegel.de 29.11.2023.
[8] Joschka Fischer calls for new nuclear weapons in Europe. spiegel.de 03.12.2023.
[9] S. on this The German-French "friendship".
[10] New course in Paris. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 21.11.2023.